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Editor's Note: This piece is an independent analysis by Payload Research, penned by Jack Kuhr, the Research Director of Payload, and Mo Islam, the co-founder of Payload. Our proprietary research, evaluations, and forecasts are highlighted throughout. You can subscribe to Payload Research here.
The dawn of the Starship epoch is upon us.
Venturing into the Starship Era
Achieving orbital velocity during the third integrated flight test (IFT-3), Starship has substantiated its potential as a one-time-use rocket while SpaceX strives to perfect vehicle recovery.
A streamlined regulatory and hardware revision phase is in sight. SpaceX foresees a quicker turnaround time and is setting sights on IFT-4 within a month and a half, disclosed by SpaceX COO Gwynne Shotwell.
Tracing the Path of Progress
Each integrated test flight of the Starship has seen notable advances from its predecessor. The rapid-iteration design methodology has enabled SpaceX to promptly identify and rectify issues, leading to thousands of enhancements with each subsequent test flight.
IFT-1 had a lifespan of four minutes before it culminated in a fireball.
Key Enhancements from IFT-1 to IFT-2:
- Implementation of a water deluge system to shield the launch pad
- Rapid throttle-up of Starship's engines during take-off to prevent pad damage
- Replacement of the hydraulic system with electric thrust vector controls to isolate engines and avoid sequential Raptor failures
- Modification of flight software to integrate data from IFT-1
IFT-2 achieved a duration of eight minutes, completed stage separation, and reached space.
Key Enhancements from IFT-2 to IFT-3:
- Minimization of slosh and filter blockage on fuel lines
- Upgradation of hardware to prevent leaks and fire
- Modification of flight software to integrate data from IFT-2
IFT-3 had a lifespan of 49 minutes, achieving its planned suborbital trajectory before succumbing on re-entry as plasma engulfed the vehicle.
The Mission of Full Recovery
With Starship attaining orbital velocity and coasting in space, the super-rocket has largely demonstrated its potential in a one-time-use configuration. However, SpaceX still has a substantial task ahead to achieve total reusability.
After the hot staging, the booster completed its boost-back manoeuvre and successfully relit several engines for the landing burn. The booster descended to a height of 462 m above sea level, but with near-supersonic speeds of 1,111 km/h, it succumbed to instability, as per telemetry data broadcasted.
Starship's second stage also encountered difficulties during its return flight. SpaceX grappled to control Starship's roll during re-entry, exposing the spacecraft's unprotected stainless steel side to plasma temperatures.
The Road Ahead for IFT-4
For the forthcoming IFT-4, SpaceX's primary focus will be to enhance vehicle landing:
- Control of engine burn and booster landing
- Securing heat shield tiles
- Eliminating roll issues on Starship reentry
In the grand scheme of things, nearly every other rocket is completely expendable, so attempting reuse is a bonus. Regulators do not perceive a failure to recover the vehicles as a major anomaly.
FAA's Perspective
"We didn't see anything major. We don't think there's any critical systems for safety that were implicated," FAA's Kelvin Coleman said at Payload's Space Capitol event on Monday. "Usually if there's not any critical systems for safety implicated, the mishap investigation can be pretty clean and it can move pretty quickly."
Shotwell announced on Tuesday at Satellite 2024 that Starship could be ready for another flight in about six weeks. She also reaffirmed the goal for Starship to recover both stages this year.
The Way Forward
In the future, the FAA plans to simplify Starship’s launch approval process.
"We’re trying to work with them to get them on a different program, if you will, in terms of how we approve their launches going forward," Coleman said. "We want to get away from the launch-by-launch approvals and get more into what Part 450 was really designed for, which is an approval of a portfolio of launches."
The Potential of Expendable Starship
IFT-3 demonstrated Starship’s potential as a one-time-use vehicle impressively. According to SpaceX, Starship is currently capable of transporting ~200 tons to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) in a one-time-use configuration, making it the most capable rocket ever developed.
It would require nine Falcon 9 one-time-use flights to deliver the same payload volume as one one-time-use Starship flight.
The Low-Cost Approach
In addition to thrust capability, SpaceX is constructing Starship at an incredibly low cost. SpaceX fabricates Starship by stacking inexpensive stainless steel rolls on top of each other instead of using conventional carbon/aluminum, significantly reducing material costs. The launch giant is producing Raptor engines at a rate of one a day, helping the company bring the cost per engine down to ~$1M (as per Payload analysis). By building Starship and Super Heavy boosters at a blistering pace, the company can distribute fixed costs and add operational efficiency.
SpaceX has stated it could spend up to $10B on Starship R&D. In the next couple of years, Post-R&D, Payload estimates SpaceX will be able to build each full-stack Starship for below $100M.
Starship V.1
Starship V.1, which was launched on IFT-3, can transport a staggering 200,000 kg in a one-time-use configuration, according to SpaceX. At that performance level, Payload estimates Starship’s internal cost to send a kg of payload to orbit in a one-time-use configuration would come in at around $500. Considering SpaceX’s internal cost to launch Falcon 9 on a one-time-use basis is likely above $2,000 per kg (as per Payload analysis), SpaceX’s reduction in cost to orbit is already significantly improved.
Starship V.2
SpaceX plans to launch three or four more Starship V.1 prototypes before transitioning to a new Starship V.2 as soon as this year. V.2 will increase propellant capacity, reduce dry mass, and improve overall reliability.
Starship V.3
SpaceX is already scoping out a Starship V.3, which Elon Musk said will be 20 to 30 m taller and capable of 10,000 tons of thrust. To achieve that level of performance, SpaceX plans to employ its Raptor 3 engines, which are capable of 350 bar chamber pressure, enabling 20% more thrust than the Raptor 2 engines that are currently in use.
- SpaceX anticipates that Starship V.3 will be able to carry a mind-boggling ~200 tons fully reusable and ~400 tons expendable.
- The video game-type numbers would cut the internal one-time-use cost to launch a kg to orbit in half again.
As a one-time-use vehicle, Starship is the most capable rocket ever created, and stopping development there could spare SpaceX billions of dollars in R&D costs. However, full reusability is the launch giant’s ultimate goal as it would bring the cost to orbit down even further. SpaceX is determined to fly and blow up as many Starships as necessary to achieve the goal.
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